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陈冰：马科斯下令“调查”，菲律宾准备服软？_我的网站

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A |

File picture of US Capitol. Photo: VCG
The US Senate on Friday overwhelmingly approved a bill that would impose sanctions on buyers of Russian oil, a measure that had long been championed by the late senator Lindsey Graham before his death last month, CNBC reported. A Chinese expert criticized the legislation, warning that if implemented, the bill, driven largely by political motives aimed at catering to US domestic political correctness, could severely disrupt the already fragile global energy market and economy. He also noted that the bill is essentially a tool of political coercion, weaponizing tariffs and unilateral sanctions to hijack normal global energy trade and override sovereign economic choices of independent nations.
The legislation, named The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, aims to hurt Russia's war effort in Ukraine by penalizing purchasers of Russian oil and Russian leaders. It passed with bipartisan support 86-11 and will now proceed to the House, which is on recess until September, per CNBC.
The bill would impose tariffs of up to 100 percent on countries that are among the top five purchasers of Russian crude oil or gas, which includes China and India.
It also includes sanctions targeting Russian leaders, officials, targeting Russian leaders, oligarchs and financial institutions. At the request of US President Donald Trump, the bill extends sanctions on Iran's weapons and energy sectors, CNBC reported.
Notably, the bill's excessive tariff discretion has sparked fierce internal doubts within US political circles. Representatives Gregory Meeks of New York and Don Beyer of Virginia said in a statement they still had "fundamental concerns" about the tariff powers for the president, who has made them a central piece of his "America First" approach to foreign policy.
"What the bill does grant ... are sweeping new tariff authorities that the president could weaponize with abandon, as he has repeatedly done in the past," said Meeks, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and Beyer, the senior Democrat on the Joint Economic Committee, according to Reuters.
Chinese experts have strongly criticized the bill's politically driven nature, its economic coercion, and its severe spillover risks to the global economy.
The bill, aimed at putting pressure on Russia, would disrupt global energy markets and create new uncertainties for the world economy if implemented, Yang Jin, associate research fellow at the Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times.
Many economies retain legitimate, market-based energy cooperation with Russia out of practical economic and energy security needs. Russia's energy exports have long been a key component of the global energy system, with countries including India and some European nations continuing to rely on Russian oil and gas, said Yang, noting that even some European countries have received exemptions to maintain energy imports from Russia, underscoring the role of Russian supplies in supporting economic stability.
India's reliance on Russian crude increased further after the conflict in West Asia disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. With Gulf supplies affected during the US war on Iran, Indian refiners turned more heavily towards Russian oil as an alternative source, Indian media Hindustan Times reported on Saturday after US Senate passed the bill.
When asked about the bill on July 15, Lin Jian, spokesperson from China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that China firmly opposes unilateral sanctions that have no basis in international law or authorization of the UN Security Council, and will take necessary measures to firmly defend the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese businesses and citizens.
Practicing double standards and resorting to coercion and pressuring will eventually prove to be self-defeating, said Lin.
Yang further pointed out that the push for the bill, labeled after Lindsey Graham, who was known as one of the toughest Russia hawks in Washington, lays bare Washington's distorted domestic political logic.
The legislation, which represents another typical case of US hegemonic long-arm jurisdiction, is largely designed to ease US domestic governance pressure. As the Trump administration fails to deliver substantive progress in de-escalating the Russia-Ukraine conflict as promised, ramping up external sanctions and forcing third-party sovereign countries into abandoning normal economic and trade cooperation has become a convenient political tool for US politicians to showcase tough posturing and ease domestic pressure, Yang said.
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直新闻：菲律宾撤换了菲西部军区司令，总统马科斯宣称要调查“录音”是否属实，您怎么看？

特约评论员陈冰：马科斯说要调查录音是否属实，意味着推翻了前几天菲律宾高官的振振有词，反证“录音是伪造的、是人工智能合成的”才是真正的胡编乱造，否则就不用调查是否属实了。而把菲律宾西部军区司令卡洛斯海军中将撤职，更有点不打自招的意思，相当于承认中菲间有“君子协议”，仁爱礁补给问题有“新模式”存在。

一个连小孩子都知道的办法是，让这位海军中将出面澄清，不就什么都清楚了。

B | 可菲律宾方面采取的是“悄悄埋葬”做法，先让海军中将休假，让国际记者找不到当事人，接着解除他的职务，恐怕短期内再也不会露面，可以缓解菲律宾的尴尬。

C |

问题来了，为什么菲律宾要进行所谓调查，让当事人避开公众视线呢？一是菲律宾难以蒙混过关，中菲的确存在仁爱礁补给问题的“君子协议”，所以用“调查”来让这件事降温；二是菲律宾开始服软，意识到不是中国的对手，在黄岩岛、仁爱礁问题上是干不过中国的。菲律宾集结百艘渔船试图侵闯黄岩岛，结果发现有多艘中国海警船和民兵船只就在前面等待，不得不落荒而逃；中国海警还在黄岩岛举行了演习，公布了至少9艘中国舰艇，像扇子般在海上排开航行的画面，这让菲律宾忌惮；三是中国海警发布了《海警机构行政执法程序规定》，其中有专门章节讲述如何处置涉嫌违反出入境管理的外国人，指出中国海警有权拘留非法出入境的外国人，最高期限可以高达60天。

这就是说，中国海警可以依法拘留侵闯南海的菲律宾人士，包括强行向仁爱礁坐滩破军舰提供物资的菲方人士。看到中国如此强硬，并且公布了法律先行警告，菲律宾设法后撤，设法解套了，扛不住了。我个人的评估是，菲律宾开始服软了，知道无力对抗中国。

D |

直新闻：但是菲律宾总统说话仍很硬，说很难相信有这样一个协议，在向军校毕业生致辞时，也强调菲律宾将“强力捍卫领土”，菲律宾在南海问题上真会后退一步吗？

特约评论员陈冰：很多国家的领导人，都会把软话说得铿锵有力、义正言辞。菲律宾总统马科斯也一样，不可能在“调查”刚开始就亮出底牌。对军校毕业生的致辞，也不可能变成承认自身力量不足的检讨书。

当然，到目前为止，还不能排除菲律宾还会胡搅蛮缠，来测试中国面对仁爱礁补给问题，会不会真的依法抓人。

E | 可以说，中菲南海局势依然紧张，擦枪走火的危险依然存在。

F |

这一次中菲围绕仁爱礁补给问题，围绕“君子协定”的真伪，算是掀桌子了，撕破脸了，那么接下来的问题也将聚焦于如何处理仁爱礁坐滩破军舰上。这几年的中菲争端，都是围绕仁爱礁坐滩破军舰而展开的。为了维护南海和平，就需要解决这艘破军舰的去留问题。

G |

中方近期提出两个策略，一是强调破军舰对南海的海洋生态，造成不可逆转的损害，为了保护海洋生态，菲律宾也得把坐滩破军舰给拖走；二是中国海警发布行政执法程序规定，对涉嫌非法出入境管理的外国人，可以采取30到60天的拘留。

H | 很多海外媒体都认为，这是有针对性的法律，其中就包括非法闯入仁爱礁的菲方人士。

按照以前的“君子协定”，中国出于人道主义考虑，在中方的允许下可以向破军舰提供生活物资，但不许运输建筑物资，让破军舰自然腐烂。现在菲方撕掉这个相对人道的协议，那好，中方必然致力于解决坐滩破军舰的去留问题了，不能老驻扎在那里破坏南海的生态。如果菲律宾破军舰执意赖在那里不拖走，不排除中方用自己的方式来解决问题。

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Published on:04:40:38

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